Although we see the possibility of Ron Paul winning New Hampshire, there has not been as much talk of Ron Paul in Iowa due to the more traditional beliefs of the Republican caucus attendees there. Strangely enough, though, the Iowa Independent is talking of Ron Paul as a possible spoiler in the race due to the high number of GOP caucus goers who are actually against the Iraq war. I think the analysis here is right:
Ron Paul — Paul’s support comes from the least likely corners of Iowa, making it very difficult to measure with “likely voter” polls. Cynics expect his unlikely coalition to stay home on caucus night, and they might; but if the depth of a candidate’s support is one measure of his likely success in the caucuses, Paul has the rest of the field beat. While Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson, and Sen. John McCain appear to swap supporters every few weeks, Paul’s fans remain squarely in his corner. And there is the oft-ignored fact that polls show that a majority of likely GOP caucus-goers favor withdrawal from Iraq within six months, which many analysts are hard-pressed to explain.
Could Paul win Iowa? I’m not sure. He’s in fourth place behind Giuliani, Huckabee, and Romney. The way independents and Democrats vote is not as “iffy”, I guess you’d say, as in New Hampshire. Iowa just doesn’t have the “independent spirit” we are used to associating with the northern state primary. There is a major factor though that might change this race around: It’s Ron Paul! If his campaign and his supporters are working hard in Iowa, it could be possible for Paul to pull off a 3rd place or higher finish.
If Ron Paul were to carry New Hampshire and place a decent 3rd or higher in Iowa, the chances of him making the nomination will grow exponentially. The media will have to cover him at that point, and, given that I believe most Americans agree with Paul (they just don’t know about him…bad name recognition thanks to our great friends in the corporate media), he will win with a sizable majority–his largest opposition coming from neocons and their blowhards like Hannity and Limbaugh.
Time will tell. It is just over a month until the Iowa caucus, the first step in this race to the finish primary season.
Filed under: Politics, Ron Paul | Tagged: caucus, iowa, Primary, win
News is out that MSNBC is angry with talk show host Tucker Carlson for inviting Ron Paul onto his show over and over again. Tucker is the only guy who gives RP the airtime he deserves!
I’ve gone to http://www.savetucker.org to sign up and let the NBC execs know this movement won’t sit back and let this happen.
We need more open-minded talk show hosts, not less!
Don’t let them cancel “Tucker” and cut RP off from media time!
I think if Ron Paul gets some good media coverage in Iowa over the next few weeks it’ll make a big difference. No more outsider talk. Frontrunner intros to the public and the media.
Here’s what I think will happen if Ron Paul wins NH and does well in Iowa; Sean Hannity will continue to insist Ron is wrong on Iraq, but focus more on the areas he agrees with Dr. Paul.
Limbaugh will claim he really has agreed mostly in principle with Ron Paul all along, he just didn’t believe he had any chance. Remember how quick Limbaugh was to say he was glad he didn’t have to carry the water anymore for moderate Repbublicans who lost in 2006?
Ron Paul is on pace to raise $17 million this quarter. That is truly awesome, truly.
Imagine Paul teaming up with Kucinich for the general election. That would shake it shake it shake it up!
http://garlinggauge.com/2007/11/24/elizabeth-kucinich-on-ron-paul-dennis-kucinich-as-running-mates/
What you have is a bunch of leftist anarchists coming into the GOP just to use Paul to mess things up. They’re even been blatant about their stategy on liberal blogs and websites. They’re not sincere Republicans at all.
It’s a shame that the GOPers are way too polite to crack down on them.
And the Paul campaign attracts these crazies like a magnet.
If they succeed in screwing up the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, I think you’ll immediately see all Republicans united against Ron Paul. And not a moment too soon. Cause his “Surrender-tarian” views on the War on Islamo-Fascism are NOT libertarians and they’re CERTAINLY NOT Republican.
Eric Dondero, Fmr. Senior Aide
US Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX)
1997-2003
Libertarians for Giuliani
http://www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
Eric,
I am a life long Republican and find your comment way out of tune with what is really going on.
Eric, you are a liar. Dr. Paul did everything he could to help you out and you stiffed him. Why not get lost in Mexico, again?
Ron Paul, with a lot of grassroots effort and additional media friendliness, has a shot at capturing the Republican nomination.
Maybe the speculation on winning or top-3 finish will deliver is premature? Let’s focus on the work we have to do – everyone please introduce three people to Ron Paul’s ideas every day. Maybe in the post office line or in the grocery checkout line. Spread the word. Three a day.
Ron Paul blamed the attacks of 9/11 not on the Radical Muslim Terrorists, but on the United States of America. I’m a Veteran Sir. I fail to see how blaming our own country, and our brave men and women in uniform, is something that “helps me” or any other American, thank you.
To Eric,
It is very clear how unobservant you are. Life, history, politics, religion, are all very simple, they are not a series of “accidents”, which it seems has made you quite confused and therefore posting very foolishly. It is fact 9/11 was an inside job, American sponsored. Please swallow your pride, to become a respected person.
Eric, I now agree 9/11 was an inside job. I’ve just recieved a video I bought on-line actually showing Bush and Cheney planting the charges. The next one I ordered, which cost ten times the first one for some reason, actually shows Bush and Cheney inflating life size people in Cheneys garage and then throwing them off the Twin Towers on 9/11. By the way, does anyone know which state ‘Nigeria’ is in?
You should check into the Oklahoma City Bombing. Huge cover-up. Islamic Fundamentalists were behind the bombing, and there was very likely a connection to Iraqi Intelligence.
21 eyewitnesses saw an “Arab man” fleeing the scene of the bombing minutes after, in downtown OKC, including a City Councilman and his two staffers.
Terry Nichols visited the Southern Phillipines, a known hide-out for Radical Muslims 5 times!!! the year before the bombing.
Yet, Clinton pinned it on a couple “disgruntled gun nuts.”
Reality: He was too afraid to attack the real culprit Saddam Hussein.
The government, even today, is covering up evidence that points to numerous incidents of Islamic Terrorism here in the US since 9/11.
Open your eyes. They are here, and they want to convert us or kill us.
Look at this week’s news: Paris is burning. Muslim Youth are rampaging all over France.
I understand why Eric believes that the attack on the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City was the work of Islamic Terrorists but I think that he is wrong.
I believe that U.S. Intelligence, in a False Flag Operation, attempted to blame the bombing on alleged, non-existent terrorists from the Middle East but their plan was foiled when McVeigh was accidentally apprehended.
There are idiots who call Ron Paul supporters and others islamo facists based simply on their opposition to the war. But the Iraqis have voted for Sharia law and religious intolerance against christians and non muslims is much worse there now than under Sadam. So who are the real islamo facists.
Eric,
Guess who overthrew the secularist Saddam Hussein, and put the Islamo-fascists in charge of Iraq now?!
The simple truth is that Islamists are not a monolith. If we exit the middeast quickly, the Sunnis and the Shiites will proceed to kill each other , instead of shooting at our uniformed men and women. That’s the beauty of non-interventionism.
I am not afraid of the terrorist threat as much as I am of the threat to our civil liberties and here’s why:
Before 9/11, the Federal government curbed our civil liberties by assuming the responsibility for protecting us on jets. They failed.
The Federal and State government curbed the the civil liberties of the people of West Virginia by assuming the responsibility for protecting them on the campus of Virginia Tech. They failed.
Ask yourself these questions: Do you believe war requires sacrifice? Do you believe sacrifice necessitates a reduction of freedom? Do you believe that the War on Terror can permanently solve the problem of terrorism? Are you prepared to sacrifice your freedom and your children’s and grandchildren’s freedom? Doesn’t this sacrifice constitute victory for the terrorists?
I remember after 9/11, which touched us all, hearing stories of brave Americans who claimed, “We must go on. We cannot allow these people to control us.” I thought to myself, that is why we are the land of the free and the home of the brave – no terrorist is going to control me through fear. That is their weapon – terror.
Since 9/11 we have spent ourselves into over 2.5 trillion dollars in debt, we have clamped down on civil liberties and freedom, and we have passed laws which prove tht we are terrified. Maybe they do attack us because we are rich and free. Maybe there is a War on Terror. But if this is true, by every single possible measure, we are losing.
A question: how do the Iowa caucuses really ‘work’? As I’ve heard them descibed, they sound almost like Meetups. Who decides which groups ‘count?’ Can anyone in Iowa set up a caucus, or is there some limit? Could each Meetup arrange a caucus? Sorry to show my ignorance, but down here in GA, we just use simple primaries. Thanks for any insight.
Peace be with you.
*Note — Eric Dondero is a former top staffer for US Congressman Ron Paul and the founder of the Republican Liberty Caucus. He is also one of the Co-Founders of the Neo-libertarian movement, which supports free market economics, civil liberties, but a hawkish/pro- military foreign policy, ala P.J. O’Rourke.
http://www.harrybrowne.org/articles/Dondero%20-%20Bush%20was%20right,%2005-03-03.htm
“Ron Paul blamed the attacks of 9/11 not on the Radical Muslim Terrorists, but on the United States of America. ”
eric, please cut the moralizing. dr paul was not “blaming” anybody. rational people – unlike you – are not interested in assigning blame for what can not be changed. they are interested in controlling factors that can change the future.
when talking about 9-11, dr paul was giving a casual account of the events, while stressing causal factors that are under our control. sure the world is full of dangerous muslim nuts. that we can’t change – at least, not in a cost-effective way. but we can control our own contribution to the rise of such nuts, some of whom would be such regardless of what we do, but some of whom would not.
“You should check into the Oklahoma City Bombing. Huge cover-up. Islamic Fundamentalists were behind the bombing, and there was very likely a connection to Iraqi Intelligence.”
well, at least this tells us where true conspiracy nuts are.
Reason: Your former staffer Eric Dondero is challenging you for your House seat in 2008.
Paul: He’s a disgruntled former employee who was fired.
Eric, time to grow up kid, you’ve had your 15 minutes of fame/shame….now run along and play with your toy soldiers. And Eric, if your so excited about killing the Islamic terrorists, why haven’t you re-uped for Iraq? Not that excited, I guess.
Prediction: Eric will never win an election in a district where Paul has won 10 times. Why replace a constitutionalist with a neoclown???
omg! Saddam did Oklahoma? Who knew????
Did he use the explosives Rumsfeld provided him with in the 80’s?? The nerve gas that the neoclowns gave him??
How ironic, much of Saddam’s WMD came from the U.S. Truly the inmates are in charge of the asylum.
Honestly I believe ron paul gets a bad rap from some of his supporters. First Ron doesn’t believe 9/11 was an inside job, and quite frankly neither do I. When he criticized the attack early in the debates he was only trying to convey that it was the U.S. foreign policy which put the U.S. at risk of attack. Its not our way of life its our policy that makes us targets. I believe this is true. Don’t make Ron Paul into a conspiracy theorist or a anti-establishment cronie just because that may be your agenda. I have long time been a member of the GOP and the US army and yes I support Ron Paul. His ideas on Foreign policy and Iraq are prudent to our nations situation. The economy does need to cut back on spending and our involvement in the middle east needs to cease. Only then can we hopefully reach oil independence and redevelop economic credibility. Support Ron Paul for your own reasons but don’t put your words in his mouth, especially if you’re crazy.
Very good thoughts, Stephen. I agree
agreed
The answer is no.
To All,
It is good to see so many people go to bat for Ron Paul when there are always a few who will try to scar his name for reasons and ideas which truly do not apply to Dr. Paul.
It is neat to see a group of people who speak to the truth, can share a very centralized and fundamental philosophy created by the founding fathers as their driving purpose, and have enough devotion and ethics to make sure that such a unique person like Dr. Paul isn’t just sweep under the rug by the biased media, a few confused people, and the bureaucratic entities seeking even more power than they have already accumulated to this day.
I believe that this is a unique opportunity that so many people would gladly take advantage of if only they were truly aware of its potentiality. It is just a factor of bringing the truth to more people, letting the words speak for themselves, and showing those people who only vote for popular candidates in order to be right, that this isn’t what democracy is about. In fact, this is what has hindered our individual ethics and our societal liberties and what threatens our country the most as it nears the brink of its collapse. It isn’t a few Islamic terrorists that we need to fear or concern ourselves with… it is the evergrowing march into Fascism that so many people blindly follow out of ignorance and their lack of understanding for the truth. This is a unique & rare opportunity that we have been granted to support such a legitimate candidacy for the Presidency of the United States. It is for this reason alone that I can see the crucial need for those of us to act now and to support perhaps one of the last efforts we may ever see to save our wonderful country while the time still permits!
To all supporters, keep up the good work!
And to all questioners, all it takes is a little research so that the truth will be known!
God Bless America and all its supporters!
Sincerely,
Mike DeVries
Stephan, I don’t know how much you been out in the world, but I’ve been a lot of places where it is indeed our way of life that makes us a target. It’s called freedom; freedom to draw a cartoon any way we se fit, name a teddy bear whatever we want.
After U.S. policy bailed on the Muslims in Bosnia, did we get a break because of that? Ask the people bombed shortly afterward at American facilities by Islamic extremists.
Face it, folks; evil people are out there, people who want to return much of the world to a 7th century way of life that would consider each and every one posting here a heretic whose head needs to be removed. Ignore them at peril. This is not fear mongering; this is fact. How we deal with it is the point of discussion.
Ron Paul for President!!!