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jack3566Indiana and North Carolina Primary Predictions
My prediction for the primaries is that the Indiana polling data is correct, Hillary will win there by a comfortable enough margin. It seems to be about 48.3% for Clinton and 42.5% for Obama, according to RealClearPolitics, I suspect the end result will be around a 5 point lead for Clinton.
North Carolina is where it gets interesting. Not too long ago, Hillary was behind 20 points–now she’s almost caught up. RCP has the average numbers at 49.6% for Obama and 42.6% for Clinton. I normally would not think Hillary could win this, but Karol Rove has hinted at it and yesterday Bill Kristol sounded convinced that Hillary would win North Carolina. We’ll have to see. I am going with the poll numbers for now and calling Obama.
Disagreements?
Filed under: Barack Obama, Democrats, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, Politics
Polls always underrate Clinton. That doesn’t mean she always wins, but she usually gets about 5% more than they predict. If Rove thinks she can win NC, I believe him–or at least believe it will be close. He’s evil, but he knows politics.
Bill Clinton himself was in my hometown yesterday. At around 12:30 PM, outside the train station in Marion, NC he spoke to small crowd including me. (The crowd was small because the population is small and the campaign kept a lid on the fact that he was coming. We only found out by chance the night before.)
Anyway, he spoke well. He was down to earth and made sense. He shared a number of points that I just had not heard on the news. I was already leaning toward Hillary over Barack and hearing the details from Bill made up my mind.
Now that that’s out of the way, I do not know if Hillary will take NC. I believe it will be close. It depends on how strongly the rest of the state supports Barack and his support has been waning even among some blacks in our community. We will see what happens tomorrow. I believe Barack has hit a kind of glass ceiling because of Rev. Wright. This is similar to the glass ceiling Hillary hit at the beginning of her campaign - because of the gender, I think. Again, we will see what happens but they are both close.
I would love to see Hillary actually win the state. That would be quite an accomplishment, don’t you think?
Let’s if I can keep my record going (I said 8-9% Hillary in Penn; it was 9.4%):
Indiana: Hillary by 7-8%
North Carolina: a 1-2% victory for Obama, though it could be the same margin the other way.
Obama loses both, he’s in trouble with the supers. Hillary loses both, enough of the supers will bolt to finish her before June 3rd. They split and Hillary, the Black Knight, continues to hop around with no arms, kicking Sir Obama in the arse, while the Killer Rabbit McCain waits patiently.
I’ll take a shot at this, I say Hillary takes both by at least 3% but the republicans will be responsible due to the the “Chaos effect” just a shot in the dark.
If Hillary does manage to pull off North Carolina, the margin would indeed be the ‘Chaos vote’ . That vote might explain some of the discrepency with the polls, since the normal ‘Chaos’ voter would not be polled for a Democratic primary.
Hillary will win Indiana by around 6 percent. North carolina will be close and could go for either clinton or obama
I love how Karl Rove and Bill Kristol are so giddy that Clinton might win. They can’t wait to have a shot at her in the presidential election. I wish Hillary would concede already. The Republicans have no strategy for beating Barak Obama. Why can’t Democrats see this? Why on earth do they think Hillary is more electable as president? People so vote against their own interests in this country it’s ridiculous.
Cartoons here: http://spinachflame.wordpress.com/
Maybe the first thing the GOP would do is spell Barack’s name right.
How many times do I have to say this: very few think Hillary will actually carry through to the nomination at this point. It has to do with all the light she’s shining in dark corners that matters.
Beating Barack Obama will be considerably easier, now that Mr. ‘Hope and Change’ has shown himself to be a rather inexperienced product of the Chicago political machine with suspect judgement. Problem has been, exposing that by the white guy for the GOP would be considered racist (which it isn’t). Being exposed by the white woman in the Democrat party, it is not.
What’s left for the GOP to do is to point out just how far left his actual voting record is (what little of it exists that goes beyond voting ‘present’) and to get him to demonstrate that, when outside of his prepared teleprompter speeches, he’s not very quick or astute on the uptake.
Obama will continue to kick ass. Even if he loses by 5% in both states (which is very unlikely) he will still be up enough in both super delegates and delegates that Hillary CANNOT WIN. All she is doing is trying to ruin the party on a statistically improbable chance of victory.
I hope she enjoys ruining the process and lying, because that is all she does.
Have you read the articles about Obama and Zogby ties?
I am writing from NC.
There are many good and intelligent people here. They are not all elitists from academia.
Have you all noticed the consistent pattern of responses from Obama supporters? No facts,
just personal attacks.
Lately, Hillary has started to sound a lot like the Bush campaign during the 2004 elections: people who disagree with her are labeled elitist, or out of touch with Small Town, USA. How exactly is a woman who hasn’t driven a car or pumped her own gas in touch with me and the problems I’m facing? Now, all this gas-tax stuff is hitting the fan. More than 230 economists wrote a letter last week saying the tax holiday would not provide any major benefits, and would actually do more to INCREASE the oil companies’ profits. Hillary says that she wants the oil companies themselves to pick up the tab for the holiday, then forgets to mention the fact that the government has no way to make them do that. And if they did, what’s to stop the oil companies from raising their prices, forcing us to pay the same amount anyway? So, these economists (including a former Clinton White House advisor) come out and say this is a bad idea, and Hillary calls them elitist? Wouldn’t these people who have studied and won Nobel Prizes actually know what they’re talking about?! Hillary’s desperate for the nomination and will do whatever it takes to get it, including lying to the American public about what’s good for them and trying to discredit those who actually know what they’re talking about by labeling them “elitist”.
My post on Obama lies just got featured blog under democrats.
I hope Hillary crashes and burns. I have NEVER voted for a republican before, but if she manages to weasel her way, I will vote for McCain. Even though I think he is senile, I respect him more than her. I will do everything I can to make sure she does not win.
Hillary disgusts me like no one ever has. She would sell her out her grandmother if she thought it would further her political ambitions.
Go Obama GO!!!!!
OUCH! Missed badly on both!
Oh, well; it’s time for Hildebeast to retire to the cave. I doubt if she’s stops completely, but this should wind it down to a limp to the finish line. The supers will now start coming out in droves to pledge fidelity to the veneer of ‘Hope and Change’, ignoring the emptiness of the suit.
This country is in more trouble than I realized. McCain will take Obama to the cleaners the Hillary supporters will make sure of that. Be prepared for 4 more years of the same, if not worse.
Not so sure yet, Norm; that election is 6 months away and 6 months ago, who would you have guessed the candidates would be?
And even if it’s McCain, he’d only have 4 years and sure the heck doesn’t want to go out with George’s popularity levels.
Obama’s past is catching up with him.
If he is the nominee he will lose.