This weekend there will most likely be a decision regarding what to do with Florida and Michigan. On one side it would be best not to agitate to purple states if possible, on the other, you set a poor example and a bad precedent, not to mention make Hillary Clinton more likely to be the nominee (if still unlikely overall).
A simple situation has turned into a fiasco. Both states were told not to move their primaries up, and both states knowing the consequences, did so with little remorse. Hillary Clinton decided to campaign in Florida even after candidates said they wouldn’t. Clinton also remained on the ballot when others pulled out from Michigan’s primary.
So she went in with a clear advantage in both states, so I don’t see how counting the popular vote there matters, especially when Obama was off the ballot in Michigan (giving Clinton a ~300,000 boost), or how to dish out delegates in either location.
By being soft here, the DNC risks losing face in future primary seasons. States will move up figuring they will get a break later on. Disrespect for the system is likely to ensue. At the same time both places will be important in November, so maybe they will have to be soft.
Filed under: Barack Obama, Democrats, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton, Politics
This is where Hillary will get the nomination. If they rob Florida and Michigan of their votes, Hillary will scream the 14th amendment and that every vote should count. Once she wins this suit, and their votes count, she will be ahead in the popular vote.
Once Hillary takes the cake in the popular vote the Democrats will either carry this to the convention or she will win the nomination based on having the highest popular vote.
What I can’t wait to see is when Obama supporters say Obama should have the nomination because he has the most delegates. A few months ago, they would have said he should win the popular vote despite Hillary being ahead in delegates.
Despite all that’s went on, I think if they held a national Democrat primary right now, Hillary would win.
Ah, but if you count the popular vote of all the caucuses then Obama leap frogs ahead again.
There is no perfect solution but the Dems could take their GOP approach and grant half the delegate strength. It won’t give Hillary enough claim any kind of victory.
As Mike O predicted, they have halved the vote.
I think that is intended to set a precedent for such disputes in the future. The “move the date and you get nothing” threat was obviously much too draconian. Kind of like threatening your daughter “I’ll ground you for life!” It was not effective because nobody figured it could hold, and it didn’t.
In the future, “move the date and we will cut you in half” will be a very credible and fearsome threat.
Of course, they’ll never credit the GOP for doing it right from the get-go.
It’s looking like- with the help of their associated troops in the MSM- that the Dems will avoid the most embarrassing aspects of a brokered convention. The media will essentially blackout large parts of the dingbat protests that will assuredly occur there; can’t let harm befall the new political Messiah.
Here’s the question now: Is Hillary going to sue and say “every vote should be counted no matter what”?
Mike, I don’t see how the GOP method is right.
A few quick states make the determination and everybody else is locked out so they can just shut up?
How is that an improvement on the smoke filled room?
Not only is it not an improvement, but it is radically wrong.
The winner-take-all method may provide quick results, but it is at the root of so very much that is wrong with the whole system. It is what keeps third parties and moderate ideas locked out and makes compromise a bad word.
Since nobody else can break in, the two major parties are always pandering to their own extremists, with no incentive to solve any problem lest they lose “the issue”.
For example, just how many republican issues were solved during the Reagan-Bush-Bush years? None.
Thanks for point out that Clinton DID campaign in FL. I keep hearing that “Obama’s name was off the ballot in MI & NEITHER candidate campaigned in FL.” That may be technically true, but Clinton held a coupla-three very high profile “fund raising events” in the days just before the FL primary. While she diligently hewed the line to stay barely within the rules, the intent was clear – high profile events, press ops at the airport, everything BUT anything that could be considered a rally.
It sure looked a lot like campaigning to me.
Jack, I was refering to how the GOP punished the leap-frogging states; by taking half of their votes at the convention away, not all. I’m not a big fan of the number of winner-take-all contests in the GOP process myself, and caucuses are a bad joke for both parties.
“just how many republican issues were solved during the Reagan-Bush-Bush years?” I think the collapse of the soviet bloc was a pretty significant accomplishment myself, but you likely would credit space aliens before you’d ever admit Reagan had anything to do with it.
Aliens, don’t be ridiculous
Sasquatch aided the fall of the Soviet Union more than Reagan did.
……………
Reagan deserves some credit, but no where close to the amount that Mikhail Gorbachev does. Seriously, why bother talking about a minor player?
I think this decision is actually better for Obama as it pushes him closer to 2026. Clinton gaining some doesn’t matter.