It’s Friday, therefore I was in the mood for an interesting article with a profoundly long and pointless title. So therefore, I present The Political Inquirer’s 2008 Election Prediction Extravaganza .. by the end of this article you will know who the next president of the United States will be. No, I do not intend to call upon my psychic powers, but I have something just as good. The latest in election gaming simulation technology .. or a little buyable game called “President Forever 2008″ that someone handed off to me for free.
The game starts us out on September 5th, after the conventions and such are over with. I had to add in Nader and Barr because it was made before either announced their candidacies. I will be running the Bob Barr campaign, because I don’t want to influence the outcome of the predictions much with my ability (or lack of) to run a campaign.
An initial map on September 5th is located below. Light red means it’s a McCain leaning state, dark red means it is firmly in his control. The other way is true for blue and Obama. White states are too close to call. Also note the percentage values are a little depressed, but on election day they fill out to normal (ex. McCain has 40.8%, but polling now has him ~43-45%). McCain has an early lead both in percent and estimated electoral votes, but Obama can catch up quickly with the close states. All the usuals are battlegrounds, note on Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio. It might be possible for Obama to hit on the McCain leaning ones like Virginia, Arizona, and North Carolina too (click to enlarge pics).
First week and a half then goes into the books, with little changes in the electoral landscape. Barack Obama now has a clear lead in Michigan, though the rest of the battleground states from earlier remain so. McCain has the edge in Florida, but is losing ground there, while gaining big momentum and 2% in the polls in Ohio. Obama is clinging on to Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota, while the advantage is McCain for the rest of the white states. The Barr campaign is making small progress in Georgia, while also working on Virginia, Nevada, and a bunch of other random states. Electoral Estimates are in McCain’s favor 213 to 207, that excludes counts from white states. Here is the week 1 map:
Week 2 was more eventful overall. Bob Barr got some media exposure (finally), while Obama was hit with negative ads in Wisconsin and a couple other states. Good news for McCain as Ohio turns to red, he has an advantage of 44% to 38.5% over Obama there. Gains for McCain in Minnesota, Iowa, and Pennsylvania as Obama looks westward and makes gains in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, though none of the above switch to leaning toward either side. Electoral Votes favor McCain 233 to 207. My campaign continues chipping away at Georgia, but McCain holds a big enough lead over Obama there (43.6% to 31.2%) that it probably won’t matter, like real life. The map from week 2:
Week 3 brings a slew of good and bad news for both candidates. Florida has gone red for John McCain, Wisconsin has gone blue for Barack Obama, and Arkansas turned neutral after campaigning by Obama’s side. Mitt Romney (VP guess on my part, the choice of VP makes little different in this) campaigned hard against Obama in Nevada, but was unable to tip the state to his side yet. Some decent campaigning by Barr and Co. in New York, Nevada, and Ohio. Electorals favor McCain 254 to 217. Can Obama do this while falling behind in both Ohio and Florida? Obama’s team still trying for Colorado and New Mexico. The map (pictures percentages are for Nevada, showing the close race there):
Obama is losing momentum, and losing states in Week 4. Wisconsin goes back to being contested, while McCain picks up Colorado after a few days of campaigning there. He has lost poll numbers in all the key states, and is down by as much as 7% in Florida. Obama is down about two points overall nationally. McCain also won a televised debate. Obama needs to get back into this, and quickly, with only four weeks remaining:
More shake-ups as Obama falls behind. Colorado goes back to being neutral, while key states New Mexico, and Pennsylvania turn red for McCain. Washington also goes neutral from being an Obama state, and Wisconsin goes back blue. Obama won a national debate, but still can’t get it together. Obama has big momentum in Iowa, possibly on the verge of getting it. In Colorado, campaigning by Barr possibly hurt McCain (+2% Barr, -1% McCain). 295 to 206 for the electoral vote count, McCain technically has the estimations for the win, which is gained at 270:
McCain keeps on rolling in week 6, picking up Washington, Nevada, Arkansas, while turning Michigan and Hawaii (his home state, for shame) neutral from Obama’s control. McCain has the momentum, but it all might be wasted if Obama gets it back in the final two weeks to election day. Though it isn’t looking good right now with a McCain elecotral vote lead of 312 to 185. Maye the “real Obama” has come out and rejected by the voters during October?
In the second to last week, Obama hits it big in Mississippi, a state with a lot of black voters. But he’s running out of time. Delaware has gone neutral from Obama’s control. Gains for Obama in New Hampshire, while he holds an ever so slight lead in Michigan, and also Iowa. McCain losing momentum and votes in Florida, New Mexico, and Ohio. As for Bob Barr .. I think I’m doing a fine job as his campaign manager (I’m available for any politicians reading this blog ;) ) Elecotral count is now 315 to 182 in McCain’s favor. Eight days remain:
One day to election day, McCain has somewhat solidified the southern states that went neutral, but there are a lot of light reds that could end up blue when all the votes are counted. Maryland went neutral, to go with Iowa, Michigan, Delaware, and New Hampshire for being too close. Obama victory seems unlikely in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, which could seal the deal for John McCain. Rather than do another map, I will go right to election night.
The votes are in:
Congratulations to John McCain! Barack Obama lost the key states, while picking up close calls in Maryland and New Hampshire. A lot of red on that map. I’m not sure whether I should be happy, or should cry, I guess that’s what is beautiful about the 2008 election. My eyes are watering right now, but I’m pretty sure that’s from allergies. Anyways, comment with your own predictions and/or thoughts.
Filed under: Politics
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule which awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 18 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
I don’t find the popular vote remotely as important as you do (I like the elector system), but I’ll grant you 99% of the focus on 16 states is awful.
Hmm, I find this to be overly optimistic in McCain’s favor. For example… Obama having a hard time in Maryland and Hawaii? I mean, comon. A Democrat has won Maryland in every Presidential election since 1996 and even the very popular (former) Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich lost his position once the Democrats fielded a decent candidate in the next election. Hawaii, meanwhile, is Obama’s home state, even though his political career was based in Illinois.
Then there are states like Nevada and Iowa where Obama did well but McCain did poorly. I don’t think these are guarantede wins for Obama, but I think McCain is going to have an easy time there either.
Last, there are states like Montana. It’s easy to look at the traditional red vs. blue maps and call Montana for McCain, but the Montana Republican party has been losing a lot of support in past elections. George Bush did well there, but McCain is not a young Texan posing like an everyman-cowboy like Bush was and, after the 2006 elections, Montana now has a democrat governor and two democrat senators.
Whoever wins, I think this is going to be a map changing election. The incumbent war President attitude that helped win Bush a second term is going to be absent and McCain is going to have to work alot harder to win over the difficult states.
Also, Washington state would be a huge upset against Obama. Like… a UFO out of left field upset. It’s name is practically synonymous with ‘Liberal’ as far as the rest of the country is concerned.
Yeah it is McCain-optimistic .. maybe I should do best 2 out of 3 ;)
Also, yes he won places like Iowa, but a lot of those wins were before Wright and “bitter”
What is actually known presently about Obama? I have the feeling he appears “too clean and electable.” I think there is going to be considerable looking into his past, and there will be skeletons suddenly appearing that may very well add to the radical elements of Obama’s past. I may be wrong, politicians have lots of strange “bed-fellows” they don’t like making known about. The upcoming election may possibly be a far more “nip and tuck” event, and while some say differently, Hillarys’ sore losers will play a big part in the upcoming elections. Also, racial tensions will increase regardless that presently it appears all rosy and nice.
Anyone who believes a program that has McCain winning ALL the swing states plus Washington, Michigan, Iowa, HAWAII and Delaware (!) is smoking CRACK.
Barr somehow grabs 7% of the popular vote? WTF? I REALLY don’t see 7% of this nation’s population showing up for that guy. Even 2%+ for Nader is steep, though in 2000 he grabbed 2.7% or something like that with the Green Party, which was at the time considered a disruptive amount for the two-party race, maybe even enough to change the election result AND he was the third-highest of all who received votes with that 2.7%. Libertarian barely even showed up on the board! In 2004, Nader didn’t even get a half of 1%! Tell me how two NOBODYS manage to get control of 10% of the popular vote? That program is a heap of garbage. I’m not even going into how it seems to favor Republican grossly, even in states that would probably never go red…
The limits of technology .. wasn’t supposed to be too serious anyways
I think your gaming simulator blew a chip. Perhaps you might want to go back and re run the simulation considering multiple states that you have highly favored in McCain Red are HIGHLY favored in Obama Blue as I type this. The Palin effect is starting to reverse its course as many experts expected it would. An even easier solution mi8ght be just to switch Obama to Red and McCain to Blue since the margin for outcome is tracking the final #’s that way in an Obama victory.
[...] McCain recover in time? Posted on October 2, 2008 by goesdownbitter Quite the change since June when McCain was looking [...]
I like your program it is not as biased as the media is.
Boy, were you ever wrong. Looks like a landslide victory for Obama -a true electoral mandate!!!
I think Obama may win the popular votes but may loose the delegates and that will give McCain a victory. It is also possible that the election may not be fully determined on November 4.