It really comes down to:
- his inexperience and lack of political accomplishment
- his poor ad lib performance
- the identity politics
- the angry feminist factor
His inexperience will show as he continues to make regional errors, like the ‘bitter’ issue, the lack of knowledge on the Hanover cleanup, and a host of others. And McCain’s camp will continually be asking, exactly what has he accomplished? Any honest appraisal will come back with: not much.
As great he is with prepared speeches, he really stumbles around in Town Hall formats and is a pretty mediocre debater. It’s gotten to a point where even Letterman is doing ‘Uh’ counts. McCain has little such problem himself and no matter how much the MSM refers to McCain as ‘Teleprompter-challenged’, as opposed to Obama being ‘ad lib-challenged’, it’s going to have an impact on the viewing public.
Identity Politics will be a negative and its is hardly a simple matter of skin color. It’s more that white voters are going real tired of the implications of racism, the ‘It’s time’ entitlement implication, the double standard that already is present. Being pounded that you’re ‘supposed’ to vote for Barack will have a negative impact once the voting booth curtains are closed. I figure the polling will be off from the actual vote by at least 5-6 percent. Based on current polling, Obama is already in trouble, getting no bump when his locking the nomination should have given him a big one.
It’s not that racism will not factor in; it will, but likely more in Barack’s favor than against. Racist voting is hardly a Caucasian-specific tendency, as Hillary is well aware.
The final killer will likely be the really ‘bitter people’; the 70s-ere Baby Boomer feminist legions who invested everything in Hillary. The fact that Obama’s camp gave them a huge slap to the face by hiring Doyle as the Chief of Staff for the VP slot (the statement made with this was best described here) didn’t help. And the fact that Hillary has dropped off the map, makes me think that she may indeed planning covert black ops to prepare for 2012. Never underestimate the nastiness the Clintons are capable of. Even if dedicated Clintonites just stay home, it might make the difference. VP picks might have some influence, but not nearly enough if the CLintons’ back alley knife fighters are active in opposition.
Bottom line: I think McCain can actually carry it though despite the money and media being dead set against him. And primarily it comes down to the areas of inadequacy on the Obama side.
Filed under: Politics
A really historic change in the presidency — the first bald guy since Ike!
Seriously, using the old, who would you want to hang with measure, Obama is more likable in an easy-going way, while McCain comes off as a bitter and desperate Richard III-type.
The “uh’s” won’t make a diff. Ed Koch said uh every other word, got elected over and over again until Donald Manes killed himself in a scandal that finally brought down Koch’s administration. In the “town hall” environment, unless O makes a huge “gotcha”, like Ford’s “Poland is a free country” gaff; he’ll be the young forward-looking guy compared to McCain’s stay the course act. Think Nixon-Kennedy. McCain may even win verbally, but O will beat him on style points. And if O does his homework, he’ll be able to claim that on most points of disagreement, O is taking the side that McCain USED to take.
As for entitlements, I think electing Obama stops the train. “Paid in Full” and Rev.’s Jesse and Al can pack up and go home.
The Clintons will not impede O. If they do they will be Naderized and blamed for another GOP administration. The bitter-enders will suck it up. My 80-year old mom, a true believer in the New Deal, is crushed and pissed, but she sure as hell ain’t votin’ GOP. Now my mother-in-law, she’s a 70′s era woman that had been a single mom because her first husband split the country to avoid the draft. She’s GOP all the way and always has been. In a family of rock-rib republicans, she’s the last holdout. Her husband and all her children (five in the melded family) have turned on Bush when once they were a solid front of conservatism (it’s the WAR — and one of my bro-in-laws has been there twice). McCain will get one vote out of the kids ’cause he thinks McCain will end abortion — yeah, and I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell him.
As for the polls, I think most general election voters have paid zero attention so far — they didn’t watch any debates, they don’t follow cable news, they don’t really give a rat’s ass and will make up their minds a week or two before the election. If the economy’s in the shitter O wins. I expect gas prices will have come down, but price inflation across the board is going to be a killer.
Richard III? That’s a pretty heavy comparison.
Obama has to win Ohio and Florida. There is no way he’ll beat McCain in Florida so he’ll need some other states. His campaign is floundering right now without a coherent message. Even though 80% of the country think we’re on the wrong track, many of those aren’t interested in what Obama is peddling.
Am I the only one who remembers Florida was a close call back in 2000? Also, a non-coherent message? Am I the only one who saw McCains speech – “that’s not change we can believe in!” Sounds like McCain was poking at someone’s message…
Republicans seem to be counting on a lot of ‘guarantees’ to win this election, including some sort of ‘real Obama’ scandal to pop up. I’m not saying it will be easy for Obama, but if the Republican party takes the attitude that its “entitled” to the White House they might be in for a big surprise.
Barack must win this time!
I’m not sure who will win, but it is defiantly Obama’s to lose. McCain should pick Hillary as VP if he wants to win hands-down. Can you imagine the craziness if it was a McCain/Clinton ticket? Sure would be interesting… I think Obama may have the John Kerry syndrome; the media is over-hyping him just as they did Kerry. On election day, the results were quite different than what ABC, NBC, and CBS predicted. It could happen again. Obama can only lose voters now, and McCain can only win them. Can’t tell who’ll win, but if the dems don’t win this time, they’ll never win again.
In June, 1988, Michael Dukakis was about 20 points ahead of George H. W. Bush. Remember President Dukakis?
Let the media go ga-ga over Obama. Americans love an underdog. The media is actually hurting its favorite candidate, Obama.
Show Hussien Obama in his Muslim outfit with a background pic of the burning twin towers of 9/11 and we will see John McCain sworn in next January.
It’s McCain’s to lose.
[...] Still, Biden adds foreign policy experience (and experience in general) that Obama desperately needs. Not the most dynamic of choice, but better than most Barack could have made. And none of it fixes the inherent problems pointed out long ago. [...]
“As for entitlements, I think electing Obama stops the train. “Paid in Full” and Rev.’s Jesse and Al can pack up and go home.”
I really hope so, because this is a biggie.
No matter how an Obama term might turn out (and he will disappoint me; they all have except for Ford) this benefit will be there and may have the longest lasting and most beneficial effect of all.
This, for me, overrules all the other choices. All except the Supreme Court, that is.