Now we are seeing the benefits of the recession: $48\barrel oil. It’s at $63 right now and falling. Recessions mean lower prices, unless the government decides it needs to “keep prices high” by inflating (and they are trying to, see the Hinterlands’ latest post).
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Do you still believe that the oil market is efficient? I think more than ever we are seeing that the true value of the product is not being represented because people with a lot of money were controlling the market.
The oil market has to be the most regulated market, besides perhaps banking. There’s so many other factors it’s hard to say what is actually controlling it.